Ideas and analysis on money, markets and the world around us.
This is the time of year when City pundits produce their forecasts for the forthcoming year. Historically there has been little point to this exercise. Instead, here is the one chart which defines the background to all…
Read the articleFor some time I have taken the view that rescuing eurozone governments from their financial crises was too big a job for the European Central Bank, which should stick to keeping the banking system going. The only hope…
Read the articleLast Friday, David Cameron came back from Brussels having rejected proposals to draft a new European Union treaty, having failed to get promises of adequate safeguards to protect Britain’s financial sector. But given…
Read the articleDerivatives have a bad name for many commentators, with some describing them variously as dangerous or even weapons of mass destruction. The sheer size of over-the-counter derivative markets is staggering. According to…
Read the articleBy far the most important event of the week was the joint announcement by the world’s leading central banks that they were extending existing US dollar swap agreements and lowering the swap rate. Furthermore, these…
Read the articleIn recent months the European sovereign debt crisis has acquired a transatlantic scope. The political posturing in the summer surrounding the debate to increase the US government’s debt limit has highlighted the…
Read the articleIt was hoped that the appointment of Mario Monti to head a new Italian government would stabilise Italian and European bond markets. Instead, after a brief pause, bond yields on Italian debt rose back above the seven…
Read the articleIn one important respect, gold is like any other asset. You want to buy it when it is undervalued, and sell it when the opposite is true – when it becomes overvalued. Thus, knowing how to accurately value gold is…
Read the articleIn the last two weeks the headlines have switched from Greece to Italy. Financial and economic commentators who dismissed Greece as a small cog in the Euroland machine are now seriously alarmed and see no solution to…
Read the articleThe basic market problem is there is too much sovereign borrowing for the money available, which would normally drive interest rates sharply higher. Some countries have got round this by printing money while pretending…
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