A wider perspective.

Ideas and analysis on money, markets and the world around us.

Monetary inflation prospects

On Wednesday last the Fed surprised most people by deciding not to taper. What is not generally appreciated is that once a central bank starts to use monetary expansion as a cure-all it is extremely difficult for it to…

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Gold market report Feds announcement

The big event for all markets was the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday that there would be no taper. Before that gold and silver had continued their drift downwards making a mockery of chart support levels, with gold…

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No tapering

It was not too surprising that there is going to be no tapering for some very good reasons. The commencement of tapering would have led deliberately to bond yields rising, triggered by an increase in sales of government…

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Central bank balance sheets

Now that there is growing evidence of GDP growth, we must consider a new topic: the likely effect on central bank balance sheets, using the US Fed as an example. Since the banking crisis the Fed has acquired substantial…

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The 80/20 rule

Recent statistics are confirming “economic recovery” in the UK and even some of the weaker eurozone states. I put this in parenthesis, because what we are seeing is expanding nominal GDP, which is not the same thing.…

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Timing is upon us

There is increasing evidence that money is migrating from purely financial into economic activities. Business and retailer surveys all point in this direction. GDP forecasts are cautiously being revised upwards. While…

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