Conclusion: The large draws continue as net imports remain very low. We continue to believe that we are in a large global deficit in 4Q17, but most of the draws seem to show up in the US for now. With Brent at $63.50 at the time of writing, high prices might pose headwinds to demand while higher cost production slowly becomes economical again.
- Very large total draw of -9.7mb, 8.9mb more than normal. Crude built 2.2mb, which was 1.9mb less than normal (and includes a 0.7mb SPR release). Products drew heavily, especially gasoline and distillates
- Implied demand jumped sharp by 2.1mb/d, 4wk average remains close to last years levels.
- Total net imports recovered by 1.7mb/d but are still at a very low 3.7mb/d. The recovery was mainly driven by a decline in exports
- Refinery utilization increased by a further 1.5% this week to 89.6%, which is seasonally very high. Both crude and gross inputs are at seasonally record levels
- Production increased 67kb/d, pushing y-o-y growth to 1.1mb/d
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