Weekly DOE Oil Charts- November 22, 2017Nov 22, 2017·Stefan Wieler
Conclusion: This weeks stats need some more explanation. We have an overall tight situation for PADD2 in the US with Keystone out until the end of the month, Cushing drawing and reports of extremely low inventories at selected refineries in the midcontinent. WTI thus flipped into backwardation, which makes it all the more perplexing why the WTI-BRT arb is still as wide. The US is still exporting crude oil near record levels. Yet US inventories overall have not been drawing much relative to seasonal. Plus, with so much Us crude hitting export markets, Brent has remained stubbornly strong. We expect the WTI-BRT arb to narrow substantially from here, but are worried that the Brent market is prone for a correction in the near term.
• Total draw of 1.8mb vs 2.1mb seasonal. Crude drew 1.9mb vs 1.4mb build, but distillates built 0.3mb vs -2mb seasonal draw. Overall, draw roughly in line with consensus forecast.
• Implied demand down 0.5mb/d , 4 week average in line with last years levels
• Total net imports down 1mb/d again, languishing near record lows as imports are line with last year but export still at record levels
• Refinery runs up 3%, net and gross inputs at seasonally record levels
• Increased by a further 1.5% this week to 89.6%, which is seasonally very high. Both crude and gross inputs are at seasonally record levels
• Production increased 13kb/d this week, up 1mb/d year-over-year
View the entire research piece as a PDF here.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not reflect those of Goldmoney, unless expressly stated. The article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute either Goldmoney or the author(s) providing you with legal, financial, tax, investment, or accounting advice. You should not act or rely on any information contained in the article without first seeking independent professional advice. Care has been taken to ensure that the information in the article is reliable; however, Goldmoney does not represent that it is accurate, complete, up-to-date and/or to be taken as an indication of future results and it should not be relied upon as such. Goldmoney will not be held responsible for any claim, loss, damage, or inconvenience caused as a result of any information or opinion contained in this article and any action taken as a result of the opinions and information contained in this article is at your own risk.