Market Report: Weekly DOE Oil Charts

Apr 5, 2017·Stefan Wieler

Our quick take on the WEEKLY SUPPLY ESTIMATES published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) including detailed tables and charts. This week’s highlights:

  • Small build in total petroleum stocks of 1mb, lower than seasonal average build is 3.2mb.
  • However, consensus expectations were for a 2.4mb draw in crude and main products  build was 4.2mb larger than expected
  • Cushing stocks saw a >1mb build which pushed them to new all time high
  • Implied demand saw a 170kb/d weekly decline vs 170kb/d weekly seasonal increase. But total demand still up 250kb/d year-over-year.
  • The much quoted mogas demand was down 280kb/d w-o-w but flat vs same week last year.
  • Total net imports still down y-o-y in the 4 week average but this weeks net imports were flat vs last year
  • Refinery utilization up 1.5% and crude inputs up 200kb/d,
  • Mogas output down 500kb/d which seems at odds with higher refinery runs. Blending component input was down however and the mogas adjustment term flipped by over 400kb/d
  • Crude output keeps moving up again, +50kb/d w-o-w or -180kb/d y-o-y. Crude + adjustment is up 280kb/d w-o-w and +30kb/d y-o-y. However, given the large errors in the data (e.g. exports), the adj. factor contains a lot of noise

Conclusion: neutral

View the Entire Research Piece as a PDF here.

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