Weekly DOE Oil Charts - June 2, 2017 (2)

Jun 7, 2017·Stefan Wieler

Our quick take on the WEEKLY SUPPLY ESTIMATES published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) including detailed tables and charts. This week’s highlights:

Conclusion: Extremely bearish stats at face value. However the large inventory build came on the back of a suspicious collapse in implied demand and a large increase in net imports. The latter is likely timing and could simply reverse already next week. In our view it is also unlikely that demand has taken such a hit. We believe this weeks stats will reverse over the coming weeks and the inventory drawdown continues.

  • Total petroleum inventories saw a huge build last week, up 15.5mb, 12mb more than normal. The lions share is crude (+3.3mb, +6.3mb vs seasonal), but also mogas and distillates built meaningfully
  • Implied demand dropped 1.4mb/d w-o-w, down 1mb/d y-o-y. In our view this is probably a data issue, it is very unlikely that actual demand all the sudden crashed to this extent
  • The other driver for the stock build is a huge increase in net imports by +1.5mb/d w-o-w, driven by lower exports of crude and “other” of a whopping 1.2mb/d and an increase of crude imports by 0.35mb/d. Again, we don’t think last weeks data reflects a collapsing crude export market but is rather a timing issue.
  • Refinery utilization dropped 0.9% but still remains at seasonally very high 94.1%.
  • Even though output declines 24kb/d w-o-w, it is still growing 0.6mb/d y-o-y


View the entire Research Piece as a PDF here.

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