Conclusion: Bullish. Strong start into July with another sharp decline in stocks. Ignoring the weekly fluctuation in demand data, average demand appears to remain strong. Production appears to growing strongly now on a y-o-y basis (mainly a base effect due to last years sharp decline)
- Total petroleum stocks drew 7mb, 10mb more than normal and 5.3mb more than expected. Large chung of that was in SPR
- Crude (incl. SPR) drew a whopping 10.8mb, 7.1mb more than normal. Gasoline, jet and residual fuel showed meaningful decline, only distillates and “other” bucked the trend
- The draws occurred despite the massive apparent drop in demand of -2.3mb/d. The DOEs implied demand data continues to be a mess and weekly changes should be just ignored. 4wk average suggest that demand holds up well near last years levels
- Net imports remained roughly 1mb/d below last years levels
- Refinery utilization rebounded by +0.9% to 94.5%, pushing 4wk average again slightly above last years levels. Crude and gross inputs remain >0.5mb/d above last years levels
- Crude output again sharply higher, now nearly 1mb/d above last years levels. This is mainly an effect from last years decline in output at this time of the year.
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