Weekly DOE Oil Charts - July 21, 2017

Jul 26, 2017·Stefan Wieler

Conclusion: Very bullish stats. We are three weeks into July and already drew 23.5mb, 36mb more than normal.

We continue to expect larger draws in the remainder of 2H17

  • Total petroleum stocks drew 9.5mb,13.3mb more than normal and 5.9mb more than expected.
  • Largest draws in crude (6mb more than normal), mogas and distillates
  • Implied demand (products supplied) shot up to extremely high levels this week, which again we dismiss. But the 4wk average is now at record highs as well. We think there is a data issue there. Either EIA overestimates production or net imports…
  • …but net imports are already 1.5mb/d below last years levels
  • Refinery utilization increased 0.3% to 94.3%, crude and gross inputs are near all-time highs
  • Crude output down 19kb/d, but that is mainly due to Alaska. L48 output is up. On net, output is up 0.92mb/d year-over-year, but as we have highlighted last week
  • A large part of this is due to a base effect given the sharp drop-off in output at this time of the year in 2016. Output recovered in late 2016, hence this base effect will ease off a bit in 4Q17
  • The second thing to keep in mind is that the weekly data for 2H16 has been revised sharply higher in the monthly data by over 160kb/d. The month of July has been revised up even more, 207kb/d. The monthly data has been much closer in line with the weekly data in the first four months of 2017. Hence, if the weekly data reported in June and July is correct, the year-over-year growth in July was likely closer to 600kb/d (as opposed to 700kb/d) and as of now it’s likely closer to 750kb/d (as opposed to 970kb/d)


View the Entire Research Piece as a PDF here.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not reflect those of Goldmoney, unless expressly stated. The article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute either Goldmoney or the author(s) providing you with legal, financial, tax, investment, or accounting advice. You should not act or rely on any information contained in the article without first seeking independent professional advice. Care has been taken to ensure that the information in the article is reliable; however, Goldmoney does not represent that it is accurate, complete, up-to-date and/or to be taken as an indication of future results and it should not be relied upon as such. Goldmoney will not be held responsible for any claim, loss, damage, or inconvenience caused as a result of any information or opinion contained in this article and any action taken as a result of the opinions and information contained in this article is at your own risk.