Conclusion: The weekly DOE statistics are heavily impacted by the aftermath of hurricane Harvey in this weeks stats and will remain impacted for a few weeks. While the inventory build in this weeks stats was relatively benign, one cannot read too much into it given the massive impact of Harvey on imports, exports and refinery runs. Refineries are slowly coming back from the storm, but we are already moving into maintenance season. Imports collapsed this week with oil waiting in tankers to be offloaded. Exports collapsed even more, with crude waiting to be exported given the large arb incentive. Overall todays stats looked slightly bearish (without reading too much into it) and we expect even more bearish stats for the next 2-3 weeks. This will likely put a damper on the rewed bullish sentiment even though medium term we remain bullish as we continue to expect the global market to remain in deficit going into 2018.
With that, the numbers below have to be taken with a full spoon of salt
- Total petroleum build of 6.7mb, 6mb more than normal. Crude accounted for 4.6mb, SPR drew 0.3mb and will draw more going forward (5mb emergency release and 14mb scheduled to released starting in October). This is a surprisingly small build given the refinery outages.
- Products overall drew if it wasn’t for a large build in propane.
- Demand saw another large drop by 1.5mb/d to close to 20mb/d. 4 week average remains near record highs.
- Net imports increased 1.6mb/d as exports dropped 3.2mb/d while imports dropped 1.6mb/d
- Refinery runs dropped 16.9% and crude input declined by 3.3mb/d
- Crude output declined 750kb/d and the adjustment factor flipped by over 1mb/d
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