Our quick take on the WEEKLY SUPPLY ESTIMATES published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) including detailed tables and charts. This week’s highlights:
Conclusion: We have seen very bullish stats for a number of weeks now, confirming the sharp counter-seasonal inventory draws expected
- Rapid acceleration of counter-seasonal draws. Total draw of 3.6mb vs seasonal build of 4.5mb.
- Crude stocks again at the center of the draws with 5.2mb draw vs 0.6mb seasonal build and -2mb consensus expectations
- Very high total product supplied of 20.55 mb, >600kb/d w-ow and 300kb/d y-o-y. Mostly on the back of very strong demand for other (which may be just an accounting issue) but also mogas demand much firmer
- Net imports 100kb/d lower w-o-w and still hovering around -1mb/d y-oy
- Refinery utilization dropped 1.8%, which in our view could be still some aftereffects from Whiting and possibly Wood River. We are not concerned about this for now and expect rusn to pick up again going forward
- Another w-o-w increase in crude output +20kb/d, bringing US production up 0.5.mb/d y-o-y, a notable increase but not nearly large enough to offset the trajectory of inventory declines
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