Our quick take on the WEEKLY SUPPLY ESTIMATES published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) including detailed tables and charts. This week’s highlights:
Conclusion: After last weeks somewhat mixed stats, this weeks stats continue the bullish trend. Inventories keep declining counter-seasonally, implied demand looks strong and refineries working at a record pace. WTI time-spreads have significantly tightened over the past weeks and we expect this to continue as inventory drawdowns should accelerate seasonally.
- The counter-seasonal decline in total petroleum stocks resumed last week with total stocks down 3.5 mb (vs.seasonal build of 0.9mb); Crude stocks remain at the center of the draws, down 4.4mb (2.8mb more than normal and 2.4mb more than consensus expectations)
- Last weeks large build in “other” products has not reversed yet
- Total product demand reversed last weeks large drop, up 1.3mb/d w-o-w and again above last years levels. Unlike in the stock data, reported demand for “other” products saw a large jump by 0.7mb/d w-o-w
- Net imports saw a bit of a bump, only -0.5mb/d y-o-y vs. the typical -1mb/d
- Net imports still hovering around -1 mb/d year-over-year.
- Refinery utilization cranked up a notch and remains at extremely high levels
- Looks like the w-o-w decline in crude output last week was temporary, up 15kb/d this week and growing. Production now +530kb/d y-o-y.
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