Conclusion: Very bullish stats. Arguably a large share of the draws and the increase in implied demand simply offset the weakness in recent weeks and are due to data issues. But overall US total petroleum stock drew 3mb in June vs. seasonal build of 11mb, meaning that the US was in a 500kb/d deficit.
- Total petroleum stocks drew 13.4mb, 11mb more than normal and the 4 main categories drew 9mb more than expected
- Propane was the only product that built more than normal. Mogas down 3mb vs. normal, crude 2.4mb
- Massive jump in product supplied (implied demand) by 2.5mb/d w-o-w. This number is as bogus as the large declines we saw over the past weeks, the DOE has a big data problem. Overall this pushes 4wk average demand comfortably back to last years levels
- Net imports recovered, up 0.7mb/d w-o-w to the -1mb/d y-o-y levels we have seen since the beginning of the year. We view it as supportive that stocks could draw that much despite the rebound in imports, but also believe that import/export data is part of the data problem, so all numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt
- Refinery utilization rebounded by +1.1% to 93.6%, 0.6% over last years levels. While the 4wk average refinery utilization dropped below last years levels for the first time in months, crude and gross inputs are still at record levels
- Crude output rebounded by 88kb/d, almost entirely offsetting last weeks 100kb/d decline. Importantly, Alaska, which accounted for half of last weeks decline, showed another decline this week. Hence the overall increase suggest not just did all GoM production return, shale production is still increasing.
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