Conclusion: Neutral stats but impressive nevertheless given that we expected some reversal from the last 3 weeks extremely bullish reports. WE continue to expect larger draws going forward
- Total petroleum stocks built 1.1mb, 1.8mb more than normal and 2.2mb more than expected
- Other petroleum products saw the largest build (3.1mb more than normal), mogas the largest draw (2.3mb more than normal)
- Despite building more than normal, we don’t take this as bearish. Given that stocks have drawn 35mb more than normal in the first 3 weeks of July, we were prepared to see some reversal at some point. This weeks stats don’t reverse the large draws, they just didn’t repeat for a 4th week in a row.
- Implied demand (products supplied) declined slightly week-over week but is still well over last yers levels and the 4 week average demand remains in record territory
- Net imports increased week-over week but are still down 1.2mb/d year-over-year
- Refinery utilization increased 1.1% to 95.4%, 4 week average of crude and gross inputs are at all-time highs
- Crude output up 20kb/d again from last week. It’s up 920kb/d year-over year but we have serious doubts about this number. The DOE monthly data published at the end of July brought large revisions from the weekly output data. Output for May was revised 150kb/d lower, the same as April output. But year-over-year growth was revised 250kb/d lower (April 150kb/d).
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