Conclusion: Relatively strong stats, larger than normal inventory draws continue. The oil market is being roiled by the storm related issues in Texas. Currently the market puts more emphasize on the refinery shutdowns while ignoring the production losses. On net, the world is loosing petroleum output with relatively benign demand destruction. WTI remains un der pressure as traders buy product spreads, but we believe once the dust settles, it will become clear that the crude production losses will outweigh the temporary loss in refining demand. We continue to expect total petroleum stocks to decline going forward, which will create upside pressure on both spreads and flat price.
- Healthy draw in total petroleum stocks of 1.1mb, 4.7mb more than normal. Crude drew 5.7mb more than normal.
- Implied demand remains near record highs at 21.43mb/d
- Implied demand is again down 1mb/d, 4 week average demand remains very strong
- Net imports down 0.2mb/d, 1.5mb/d below last years levels
- Refinery runs at 96.6% with record crude and gross inputs. However, expect this to drop sharply as result of the shutdowns in Texas
- Crude output flat, up 1mb/d yoy. Expect this to drop as well due to the situation in Texas
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