Our quick take on the WEEKLY SUPPLY ESTIMATES published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) including detailed tables and charts. This week’s highlights:
Conclusion: Reversal of last weeks slightly bearish stats. Only bearish point is growing supply but that can’t offset the rapid declines in inventories. Expecting large counter-seasonal draws over coming months.
- The counter-seasonal declines in total inventories resumed this week with total stock building just 1.3mb, 5.7mb less than normal and 1.2mb less than consensus expectations.
- Crude stocks again drew a lot more than normal (4mb vs seasonal)
- Total product demand reversed last weeks large drop (last week was probably more of an accounting issue) , up 780kb/d w-o-w bringing total demand back to last years strong levels.
- Net imports dropped a bit from last weeks very high number, but total net imports on y-o-y basis still slightly higher than earlier this year (down 1mb/d y-o-y)
- Despite a slight drop in refinery utilization w-o-w, refinery utilization is still off the charts from a seasonal perspective
- Crude oil output keeps creeping higher, +28kb/d w-o-w and now up 360kb/d y-o-y from +300kb/d y-o-y last week
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