Our quick take on the WEEKLY SUPPLY ESTIMATES published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) including detailed tables and charts. This week’s highlights:
Conclusion: Slightly bearish stats but outlook remains for more inventory draws going forward
- The counter-seasonal declines in total inventories are taking a break this week with total stock building 6.6mb, 2.9mb more than normal and 5.1mb more than expected.
- Standout is crude, which drew significantly more than normal (-6.6mb vs seasonal). Cushing down 1.2mb. This is the result of very high refining activity, see below.
- Total product demand also took a good hit, down 330kb/d w-o-w vs. seasonally flat. Total demand now 1.1mb/d below last year. Biggest looser is distillate demand, down 500kb/d w-o-w (seasonally flat). This is probably temporary but needs to be monitored.
- Sharp pick up in net imports of 1.4mb/d w-o-w, bringing total imports to just -0.7mb/d y-o-y. Mainly the result of huge pick up in crude and other petroleum product imports from certain destinations. This pick up in net imports added to the larger stock build but will likely abate going forward.
- Sharp pick up in utilization to seasonal high of 94.1%. This will help draw down the crude overhang over the coming months as it allows to export product.
- Crude oil output keeps creeping higher, +13kb/d w-o-w and now up 300kb/d y-o-
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