Silver hits new lows for the year, while gold threatens to follow. Despite economic and debt deteriorations leading to a global crisis, PMs remain the playthings of the paper traders.
Looking at the chart above showing gold and silver declining over the course of 2026, you wouldn’t think that the world is going to hell in a handcart. Instead, gold and silver prices are reflecting declining risk, in ignorance of the facts. Currently, the opportunity for the shorts to bash precious metal prices is created by a pause in the increase in bond yields reducing the fear factor, while oil prices head moderately higher.
The yield on the 10-year US treasury note has backed down in what looks like a normal correction, encouraged by minor portfolio reweighting from equities, which are visibly struggling:
This creates the illusion of stability returning to bond markets, and with the exception of French OATs whose yields have continued to rise, all other G7 bond yields have also eased.
Western support for Ukraine is draining away, following US attempts to get Zelenskyy to admit defeat, and the talk now is of a three-way meeting at the APEC summit in China in mid-November where some progress might be made over the Persian Gulf Crisis as well as in carving up Ukraine. Fear is in retreat, along with gold and silver traders.
At least, that’s what the bullion banks would like you to believe. They make trading profits by being on the other side of public greed and fear. Today it is fear that the game is over for gold and silver, allowing the market makers to go net long of paper in London and New York. Then, having shaken out “the muppets” they can enjoy the next ride higher with long positions, turning investors into bulls at the top of the market. Rinse and repeat.
This has been the game since the mid-eighties, and immensely profitable for the bullion banks it has been. This is why at MacleodFinance we discourage our subscribers from adopting a trading mentality — don’t be cannon fodder for an establishment stitch-up.
There are two additional problems to overcome, macroeconomic analysis which drives markets, and government propaganda about the true situation in the Middle East. A macroeconomic consensus drives markets until it fails, which it periodically does. Government propaganda is a more slippery enemy, because it is widely believed. Whatever the day to day, the only way to protect one’s wealth in these very difficult times is to stack, rejoicing in the dips as an opportunity to hoard more gold and silver. A good example of a similar situation to that of today was in 1973—1974, when OPEC raised its reference prices twice:
The initial increase in OPEC’s price saw gold continue to decline to $90. Then, ahead of the second increase which was expected ahead of the event, gold began to rise and when the reference price was more than doubled, gold had doubled from its December low by early April.
The global situation was far healthier then, with an average G7 debt to GDP of only 27% compared with 125% today. So why are gold and silver languishing today, when the situation is demonstrably worse? In a word — Complacency.
Complacency about inflationary consequences, complacency about bond yields and debt traps. Complacency over consequences for markets enjoying a credit bubble. Complacency over the consequences for manufacturers and debt zombies. And refusing to address the question: how on earth do we get out of this mother-of-all crisis?