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A 4-Month Review
It makes sense at the end of every month to review the gain or loss in various markets, but now is a particular opportune time for a review given that we are one-third of the way through 2008. It also makes sense to look at recent results given the growing chorus that the US dollar has bottomed and is therefore due to strengthen.
The following table presents the gains/losses for the precious metals and major currencies for the past month, year-to-date and 12-month periods.
| | Gold | Silver | CRB
Index | US Dollar
Index | euro | Swiss
franc | British
pound |
| Month | -5.8% | -4.5% | 3.8% | 1.0% | -1.5% | -5.1% | 0.0% |
| YTD | 3.3% | 11.5% | 12.6% | -5.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 12-mos | 26.8% | 22.7% | 32.9% | -11.0% | 14.0% | 13.6% | -0.8% |
There is nothing in this table to suggest that the US dollar has turned the corner to reverse its bearish downtrend. Note particularly the 3.8% gain in commodity prices this past month.
Rising commodity prices have been one of the strongest indications that the flight out of the dollar into tangible assets is a real phenomenon. Rising commodity prices last month provide strong evidence that any dollar 'strength' was illusory. Though the dollar may have risen against other national currencies, all of them were sinking against real things. Gold and silver were the exception.
Both gold and silver declined last month, but both have respectable year-to-date and 12-month gains. Though up 26.8% over the past twelve months, gold only rose in seven of those months. Silver achieved its 22.7% 12-month gain even though it rose in only six months. These results are evidence that it's always a bumpy ride with markets – like the one we are experiencing at the moment. But use these bumps wisely by continuing to accumulate precious metal. Here's how I explained it recently in an email responding to a question about the gold cartel and their ongoing effort to cap the gold price:
"I am not adverse to setbacks like the current one, or indeed, the ongoing capping by the gold cartel. They have in fact done us a favour. Their action is keeping gold at prices lower than they would be if the gold cartel were not in there intervening to cap gold. This has enabled me and everyone else who has been buying gold to acquire it at prices lower than the gold price would otherwise be without the price capping. In short, the gold cartel is keeping dollars and other fiat currency overvalued and gold undervalued, thus enabling me and others to accumulate gold month after month with available new earnings generated each month. That's a good thing in my view. Think back to the 1960s. The gold cartel was active then too, trying to keep gold at $35 per ounce when it was worth much more than that. We all know what happened to gold in the 1970s after the gold cartel was eventually overwhelmed back then by their foolish price capping activity. The same thing is happening this time around, except that the gold cartel is allowing the gold price to rise somewhat each time they recognize that they are losing a battle -- they retreat to fight another day. So in conclusion, the gold cartel may be able to keep gold under $1,000 for a few weeks, or perhaps even months. That just gives us more time to accumulate it with new earnings we generate each month. But eventually, values will be realized (like happened in the 1970s) and gold will soar over $1,000."
When asked about the gold cartel, its activity and its motivation, I often refer to an interesting observation by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker. It is from the Nikkei Weekly, which in 2004 published excerpts from his memoirs commenting on monetary policy and the rising gold price in the 1970s: "Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake." It was a 'mistake' in his view because the gold price did something the government didn't like. It laid bare for all to see the government's empty rhetoric that it would fight inflation.
The parallel to today is simply too obvious to ignore, given the government's so-called 'strong' dollar policy, but the government is not making the same 'mistake' again. There is today "joint intervention" by central banks to interfere with the normal supply/demand activity in the gold market. These efforts are aimed at preventing gold from doing what it has always done throughout history. Gold is a monetary barometer because its rising price signals the mismanagement of a national currency.
So rather than take those steps needed to actually implement a strong dollar policy and thereby fight inflation, the government-directed gold cartel instead intervenes in the gold market "to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold", which was Volcker's lament. Central bank intervention in the gold market – which to me has been particularly obvious in recent weeks – is a bald attempt to make us believe that the dollar is worthy of being the world's reserve currency when in fact it is not.
Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2008. All rights reserved.
Edited by James Turk, alert@goldmoney.com
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